MindSpinner

In my area, there hasn’t been anything in the papers about bird flu in weeks. The mayor of our small town hems and haws and says we have a plan. (I called him.) Apparently this plan doesn’t involve, to date, clueing anybody in or advocating personal preparedness in a public forum. It would be incredibly easy not to know a thing about bird flu in my town, and, in fact, many people, if my kids’ friends and their families provide a clue, haven’t heard much about it. We are sitting ducks, so to speak.

But there are things worth knowing.

It’s worth knowing that, in certain Indonesian cases, viral loads in the nose and throat have been much higher than usual with H5N1, potentially increasing the transmissibility of the virus. (See Declan Butler’s blog and the upcoming issue of Nature.) It’s worth knowing that genetic sequences in human cases of H5N1 in Indonesia aren’t exact matches for genetic sequences of avian cases of H5N1 in Indonesia, calling into question whether people are actually catching the virus from birds. (See “What’s New” at Recombinomics. I’d like to see this confirmed by more than one source and to better understand what it means.)

It’s worth knowing that, in Thailand, villagers are ignoring warnings and eating their dead birds. (Human behavior - forgive me for stating the obvious - will have a good bit to do with outcomes.)

WHO, though definitely not telling us everything we need to know, is warning that this flu season will likely see an increase in the number of cases of H5N1. Tomorrow, according to the Financial Times (subscribers only), Europe’s disease control agency will warn governments to step up their preparations for bird flu because the virus could mutate into a form more dangerous to humans in the near future. When our own government is busy stockpiling anti-virals and printing more cash in anticipation of a possible pandemic, one has to guess that something may be up.

I let lots of flower seedlings grow in my garden this year. Sometimes my seedlings are markedly different from their parents, and the differences introduce delightful variety. In a virulent flu, inevitable mutations are that virus’s endless and mindless experimentation with a view toward survival and conquest. Every human being who comes down with H5N1 is a viral lab working 24-7.

I’ve weathered hurricanes (as a child) without undue fear. Back in ‘99, I figured we’d head off the Y2-K mess successfully. We could depend on our best minds. I am not panic-prone. But I respect this virus, and I’ve come to believe the odds are significantly in its favor.

I’d like to say I’ve been able to prepare my little family for the possibility of a pandemic, but the notion that three weeks worth of food in the guest room closet constitutes preparedness is naive. I have, however, done a batch of research and a little buying, with more to be stretched out over the next six months. (I haven’t even started to look at what we might keep on hand to help with treatment should one of us get sick, mainly because there don’t seem to be any magic bullets.) A concise and admittedly partial summary follows because, who knows, somebody might benefit from it.

Preparation lists can be found everywhere and are generally overwhelming. Here’s a useful approach to buying food and one for emergency supplies. The first things to buy are the things that will be out of stock when WHO raises the alert level and people begin scrambling to prepare.

How a pandemic plays out would depend on both the infection rate and the fatality rate of the pandemic strain. Predictions abound that enough people may be sick, caring for the sick, or hiding from the virus to make life problematic. Supply chains may break down, and basic services may be spotty, so it’s best to have a plan to deal with those possibilities.

Clean Water (gotta have it):

Reputable water purifiers can be had from Katadyn and British Berkefield. These do not filter viruses, of course, so water must still be boiled, pasteurized in a solar cooker, treated with plain bleach or water tablets, or sterilized with a nifty little gizmo called a SteriPen, available from REI. (REI also sells a variety of water purifiers.)  Storing some water in containers designed for that purpose is also a fine idea, depending on space available.  (Don’t drink from your rain barrel.)

Cooking:

I like the Volcano Stove or Volcano Stove II because it functions efficiently using charcoal, propane or even wood as fuel. Since propane would likely become a coveted and scarce commodity were lots of people depending on it, I like the fact that the Volcano Stove uses about 1/3 of the charcoal a regular grill might and will cook using wood as well. (Charcoal stores indefinitely, if kept dry. Kingsford charcoal is recommended, along with a Weber Chimney Starter.) The Volcano Stove is not, however, an indoor stove. At my house, I’d have to use it in the garage with the windows and the door to the dogs’ yard open for cross-breeze ventilation. I’m even more fond of box solar cookers, which can be made or bought. There are simpler panel solar cookers that can likewise be constructed or purchased very inexpensively. The catch is that there’s no cooking on rainy or heavily clouded days and, again, one has to cook outside.  I’d like to use a solar cooker whenever possible and a Volcano Stove only when the solar cooker isn’t an option.

Heat:

What I really want is a clean-burning wood stove with a pellet insert so that the house could be warm, but what I’ve got is a Coleman ProCat Propane Heater which will warm a small area for as long as my as yet nonexistent store of propane canisters lasts.  (An alternative is a Mr. Heater Portable, which can be used with a 20 lb. propane canister parked outside a window. But it can be harder to light.) I picture us huddling in a tent in the house (ventilated, of course), with Mylar space blankets over the top of the tent to keep the heat in.  I’m wondering just how much heat could be stored in bricks painted flat black, laid outside in a kind of oversized solar oven improvisation, and brought in when the sun goes down.  Maybe enough to stretch the propane?

The annoying thing about propane, kerosene, and the like is their limited shelf life - two years for propane, one year for kerosene and diesel, six months for gasoline.

Refrigeration (not):

There are highly efficient refrigerators that will run off a single solar panel, but, you guessed it, these are expensive - utterly out of the question in this house.  If the power goes, refrigeration is not an option.  Some improvisation is possible with simple root cellars or a variation based on placing a smaller clay pot inside a bigger clay pot with wet sand between the two and a damp cloth for cover.  Since this low-tech arrangement works in Africa to keep produce fresh longer (much longer), it will probably work just about anywhere. To view the technique and results on the site linked above, click to the third and then fourth square buttons.

Gardening:

Instead of mulching the bare spaces in my kitchen garden this fall, I’m working in more organic material and planting fall crops here and there instead - onions, leeks, spinach, (in shade, given the heat), and carrots.  Winter squash are already up, prepared to take off and take over in every direction.  Construction of new beds will continue, but I’m afraid I’m going to have to buy a saw to get them done. Our local Lowes is only going to cut so much lumber for me, even if the shop teacher who works there apparently thinks I’m cute.  Besides, their saw has been out of commission for a week, and summer’s slipping away. I’m nowhere near being able to raise enough food to survive, but I like the idea of having fresh produce to supplement what would attenuate to a diet of beans and rice.  I’m betting that certain crops could weather the winter here in Zone 6, given protection.  I’ve opted for relatively inexpensive alternative to a greenhouse or cold frame, just for a couple of 8′ beds.

The best books I’ve found on gardening (I’m learning lots) have been Ed Smith’s Vegetable Gardener’s Bible and Sally Jean Cunningham’s Great Garden Companions. I’m also mining Eliot Coleman’s Four Season Harvest for ideas about how to keep some fresh vegetables on the table year round, though sections about building greenhouses aren’t relevant to my circumstances.

Laundry:

Options include a big mop bucket with a wringer or a WonderWash hand-operated washer with enough capacity for one or two outfits at a time.  Reviews by users indicate, however, that it does a good job.

Power & Light:

If I had lots more money than I do, I’d buy a Brunton Solar Roll to power my laptop. I’ve collected lots of useful information on that laptop, in a NoteTaker notebook. Thanks to my generous and ingenious brother who made some excuse about a late Christmas gift, we now have a Brunton Solar Port 4.4 portable power source with a battery charger, which will recharge AA batteries, charge a cell phone, and, with an adapter, even provide the laptop limited juice. For light, a solar lantern supplements flashlights and a small battery-operated lantern that run off AA batteries. I figure a pandemic won’t make the sun go out; better yet, the sun won’t send me a bill. A generator, on the other hand, is not an option - too pricey and inevitably dependent on available and affordable fuel besides. 

There’s much more to say about preparation, and there are lots of places where it’s all being said, but immersion in such sites eats up a lot of time and can become an unhealthy obsession, so I’m outta here. There’s a holiday to enjoy.

If H5N1 never becomes a human pandemic (I’m mourning independently for the birds), I’ll be all set to take a back woods camping trip in some gorgeous place where I can take lots of pictures.